Probability and payouts

ANYONE markets are parimutuel: everyone's positions go into one pool per market, and when the market is resolved the pool is split among the winners.

Chance

The chance shown for an outcome is its share of the pool:

chance of Yes = ANYONE on Yes ÷ ANYONE on all outcomes

If there are 700 ANYONE on Yes and 300 on No, Yes shows 70% and No 30%. The chance is what the market as a whole is betting, not a prediction by ANYONE.

Payout

When the market is resolved, each winning position is paid its principal back, its rising-floor credit, its share of what is left of the losing side, and its rebate:

payout = principal
       + rising-floor credit
       + principal × (losing pool − all credits owed to the winning side) ÷ winning stake
       + rebate

The rising-floor credit is what makes being early pay: half of every position taken on the other side after yours is credited to the positions already on your side, in proportion to their principal. The full explanation, with a worked example, is in PMM V2: the market engine.

Example

	Yes	No
In the pool	700 ANYONE	300 ANYONE
Total pool	1,000 ANYONE

Yes wins, and you have 70 ANYONE on Yes, 10% of the winning side. If nobody on Yes had any credit, you would get your 70 back plus 10% of the 300 on No:

payout = 70 + 70 × 300 ÷ 700 = 100 ANYONE

With credits, the 300 is shared differently: positions that were on Yes before most of the No money arrived take more of it, and later ones less. Winners together always receive the whole pool.

The multiplier

Before you confirm, each side shows a multiplier: what the pool would pay per ANYONE on that side if the market resolved right now, splitting the losing side by principal. In the example above, Yes pays 1.43x and No pays 3.33x.

It is an estimate. It does not count rising-floor credits or the rebate, and it changes with every new position until the market closes. A side that fewer people choose pays more.

What is guaranteed

• A winning position never gets back less than it put in. The pool always holds at least the whole winning side's money.
• A losing position gets only its rebate, unless you sold it before the end. See Can I exit early?
• The payout is calculated by the market contract on Base, from the amounts on-chain.

Rebates

Part of every fee is returned to traders as a rebate when the market resolves. It goes to every position held until the market resolved, winning or losing, in proportion to what it paid. See Fees and the burn.